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by briyan, Level 45
Last updated at October 25, 2008, 8:05 pm
In the harshly competitive MMO landscape, where huge financial hurdles and the mere existence of Blizzard's World of Warcraft make any new release seem hopeless, Warhammer Online: Age of Reckoning has taken its first few steps toward establishing a healthy playerbase.



Hundreds of thousands of eager gamers have been following the progress of WAR as it moved through development, into beta, and finally release in September 2008.  Given the strongly established brand and loyal following of the Warhammer fantasy universe, expectations have been high, and the folks at Mythic have attempted to give us an indication of how things are rolling along so far with the actual subscribers. These two press releases contain the only official numbers released to date:

* September 26th, 2008 - 500,000 subscribers

* October 10th, 2008 - 750,000 subscribers

As the weeks continue to pass, keep an eye on Mythic's press department, as you can be sure they will want to make another announcement if they can reach a nice round figure like 1 million subscribers.

Has It Already Peaked?

Some may argue that WAR, like Funcom's Age of Conan before it, may have already peaked with launch hype and is only headed downhill as time goes on.   If the game does indeed have fatal flaws which prevent it from really "catching on," this may be true, but we'll need a few more data points before we can draw any conclusions on that front. For the sake of comparison, here are the numbers we saw reported by Funcom on Age of Conan, lined up with the equivalent reports about WAR:

active_subscribers_reported

You can see from the graph that Age of Conan jumped off to a strong start, but ultimately was unable to sustain growth as the cancellations mounted.   If the folks at WAR can continue on any kind of uptrend into the second and third months after launch, it will indicate a much better ability to manage the expectations associated with the game.

Blizzard Won't Make It Easy

The impending release of Wrath of the Lich King will make the competitive landscape significantly tougher as we enter November, but WAR should be able to at least "hold steady" if they have a solid loyal userbase rather than the fleeting band of novelty-seekers we saw populating the early weeks on Age of Conan.

     
69 comments
Artaniass
Artaniass Nov 5, 2008 at 5:54 am
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I personally don't believe anything will knock Wow off the throne anytime soon, simply because of the MASSIVE resources Blizzard have available. I really don't think anyone can keep up with the pace that Blizzard is doing content updates with, you can say whatever you want, but **** like that takes time, and money! The latter being something Blizzard has alot of.
Rawrr
Rawrr Nov 15, 2008 at 6:24 am
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The market still has a ton of room.  I'd say the MMO playerbase, worldwide, is somewhere around 30-50 million people.  More than that would be overkill, unless there was something that made WoW subscriber #'s seem small.  Who knows... there's a market out there, and guess what... some parts of it are not being satisfied.  The Fantasy part of the market is saturated now... 11 million wow... 1 million war... aoc... dwindling #'s don't look good for Funcom(2nd mmo, and it's not much of a success).  But there's a whole sci-fi, social(2nd Life), and kids market that's out there.  There's a lot of mmo's out there, just that none managed to take a really big name and succeed well besides WoW.  It doesn't help that Blizzard has an excellent reputation when it comes to the initial quality, note: INITIAL, of their games.  But after a few years, WoW has been on repeat for 2 years now.  The expansion won't change much.  The game will die off like EQ did after it's N'th expansion.  People will move on to bigger and better games.  A lot of people picked up WAR, myself included, and enjoyed it.  But I have no time for MMO's now, so back to playing quick and easy fps/single player stuff.  But my WAR account will be active for another 6 months, and there's a lot of big changes coming to it.  As for subscribers, most of the really hardcore pvp/rvr types will stick with WAR, since WoW never really satisfied their needs with ****ty battlegrounds and the garbage arena system.  WAR's initial rvr stuff, including scenario's, just blew WoW's out of the water.  No amount of 'omg wintergrasp lake' is awesome crap will change my mind because every tier of War scenarios had really fun battles.  Also, the keep battles can be really fun when it's not too much of a zerg.  But we've yet to see most of the endgame play out as a lot of guilds are still only rank 25-30 and still going up, and there's a lot of players still working their way through Renown Ranks.

We'll see, but WAR isn't going anywhere anytime soon.  AoC on the other hand will probably just turn into another crappy 50k playerbase ****fest.
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Started May 22, 2008
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