Brotik Did It (points fingers)

Pre-NDA drop, pre-launch, it's just to irresistible to avoid every rumor on the market, now isn't it? Brotik brought my attention to a possible (probable) forgery of a timeline between now and release -- according to an unnamed "inside source" -- but it's just plausible enough to invoke pleasurable speculation. And I've been gone a week, darn it! I deserve to fling caution to the wind and have it come back and slap me silly!

So here's the post I read:

Guild Beta Starting July 7th (was close... a few days off)

Guild Beta Ends July 27th

Open Beta Patcher opens July 30th
Open Beta Servers open August 1st at noon

When Open beta launches, they start printing the hardcopies - anything not in the game when it hits open beta will be patched in.

Open Beta goes until August 18th

Beta Officially Ends, Servers are wiped clean, final polishes server side are done, initial patches are put into place.

September 8th, head start begins, first shipment of games goes out

September 22nd, Official Launch Date

Now when I say this is "probably not" what's going to happen, I'm saying that there's safe enough odds on this being fudged all the way through as to being a delectable death trap for diabetics. While I'm sure some of the higher ups in Mythic have a timetable and set dates, they're not dumb, and they're not going to release 100% of that info to the entire staff and hope against hope that there won't be a silly leak... like the one we supposedly read and believed here.

Yet it's worthy of examination, because if the much-repeated September 23rd launch date is in fact true, a LOT needs to happen between now and then -- so much that the two months-minus span of time between now and then will seem like a whirlwind.

What's on the list? Well, guild beta has to end at some point, or at least the current phase it's in. The NDA drop will happen in advance of the Open Beta, most likely, and the OB will need to start far enough in advance to launch as to be useful to Mythic. Then there's the head start program, WAR going gold and producing the physical copies to ship, and then launch.

If you look at the rumored timeline above, all of that fits (if it just squeaks in) by the time September 23 hits. Yet this week is very telling in whether there's any veracity to this "leak" or not -- if the NDA doesn't drop and Open Beta doesn't hit by this weekend, we'll know that we can disgard this info safely. And I have a suspicion that the NDA will drop at least two weeks before OB, but who knows?

As I said, mindless speculation is a lark, and it makes room in your noggin for cupcakes.